We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8.
Who’s ahead in each state and by how much
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 10,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.
Here's a map of the country, with each state sized by its number of electoral votes and shaded by the leading candidate's chance of winning it.
Key
One electoral vote
A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Here's where the race stands, with the states ordered by the projected margin between the candidates — Clinton’s strongest states are farthest left, Trump’s farthest right — and sized by the number of electoral votes they will award.
← Bigger Clinton marginsBigger Trump margins →
Two measures help capture how important a state and its voters will be in determining the next president: “Tipping-point chance” is the probability that a state will provide the decisive vote in the Electoral College. “Voter power index” is the relative likelihood that an individual voter in a state will determine the Electoral College winner.
Tipping-point chance
| Florida | 19.0% |
| Pennsylvania | 11.9% |
| North Carolina | 9.9% |
| Michigan | 9.1% |
| Ohio | 7.8% |
| Colorado | 7.0% |
| Wisconsin | 5.5% |
| Minnesota | 4.5% |
| Virginia | 4.5% |
| Nevada | 3.5% |
| New Hampshire | 2.5% |
| New Mexico | 1.8% |
| Iowa | 1.8% |
| Arizona | 1.6% |
| Georgia | 1.6% |
| Washington | 1.1% |
| New Jersey | 0.8% |
| Oregon | 0.7% |
| Rhode Island | 0.6% |
| Delaware | 0.6% |
| Texas | 0.5% |
| Maine - statewide | 0.4% |
| Nebraska 2nd District | 0.4% |
| Missouri | 0.4% |
| South Carolina | 0.3% |
| Illinois | 0.3% |
| Alaska | 0.3% |
| North Dakota | 0.2% |
| Maine 2nd District | 0.2% |
| New York | 0.2% |
| South Dakota | 0.2% |
| Connecticut | 0.2% |
| Kansas | 0.1% |
| Mississippi | 0.1% |
| Vermont | 0.1% |
| Montana | 0.1% |
| Massachusetts | 0.1% |
| Indiana | <0.1% |
| Louisiana | <0.1% |
| Kentucky | <0.1% |
| Utah | <0.1% |
| Nebraska 1st District | <0.1% |
| Maine 1st District | <0.1% |
| Tennessee | <0.1% |
| Arkansas | <0.1% |
| Nebraska - statewide | <0.1% |
| Alabama | <0.1% |
| West Virginia | <0.1% |
| California | <0.1% |
| Oklahoma | <0.1% |
| Idaho | <0.1% |
| Maryland | <0.1% |
| Hawaii | <0.1% |
| Wyoming | <0.1% |
| Nebraska 3rd District | <0.1% |
| District of Columbia | <0.1% |
Voter power index
| New Hampshire | 4.6 |
| Nevada | 4.2 |
| Colorado | 3.4 |
| New Mexico | 3.1 |
| North Carolina | 2.8 |
| Pennsylvania | 2.8 |
| Florida | 2.7 |
| Michigan | 2.5 |
| Wisconsin | 2.4 |
| Minnesota | 2.0 |
| Rhode Island | 1.9 |
| Ohio | 1.9 |
| Delaware | 1.8 |
| Nebraska 2nd District | 1.8 |
| Virginia | 1.5 |
| Iowa | 1.5 |
| Alaska | 1.2 |
| Arizona | 0.9 |
| North Dakota | 0.8 |
| Maine 2nd District | 0.8 |
| Maine - statewide | 0.7 |
| South Dakota | 0.6 |
| Vermont | 0.6 |
| Georgia | 0.5 |
| Oregon | 0.5 |
| Washington | 0.4 |
| Montana | 0.3 |
| New Jersey | 0.3 |
| Hawaii | 0.2 |
| South Carolina | 0.2 |
| Kansas | 0.2 |
| Missouri | 0.2 |
| Connecticut | 0.1 |
| Mississippi | 0.1 |
| Idaho | <0.1 |
| Maine 1st District | <0.1 |
| Texas | <0.1 |
| Illinois | <0.1 |
| Louisiana | <0.1 |
| Nebraska - statewide | <0.1 |
| Massachusetts | <0.1 |
| New York | <0.1 |
| Indiana | <0.1 |
| California | <0.1 |
| Kentucky | <0.1 |
| Utah | <0.1 |
| Nebraska 1st District | <0.1 |
| Tennessee | <0.1 |
| Arkansas | <0.1 |
| Alabama | <0.1 |
| West Virginia | <0.1 |
| Oklahoma | <0.1 |
| Maryland | <0.1 |
| Wyoming | <0.1 |
| Nebraska 3rd District | <0.1 |
| District of Columbia | <0.1 |
In each of our simulations, we forecast the states and note the number of electoral votes each candidate wins. That gives us a distribution for each candidate, where the tallest bar is the outcome that occurred most frequently.
Who’s winning the popular vote
Our model produces a distribution of outcomes for the national popular vote. The curves will get narrower as the election gets closer and our forecasts become more confident.
Key
Average
80% chance outcome falls in this range
Here are the chances we’ll see these election outcomes.
| Electoral College deadlock no candidate gets 270 electoral votes | 0.6% |
| Recount at least one decisive state within 0.5 ppt | 6.8% |
| Clinton wins popular vote | 74.3% |
| Trump wins popular vote | 25.7% |
| Clinton wins popular vote but loses Electoral College | 7.1% |
| Trump wins popular vote but loses Electoral College | 1.0% |
| Johnson wins at least one electoral vote | 3.0% |
| Clinton majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote | 19.6% |
| Trump majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote | 2.9% |
| Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin | 10.4% |
| Trump landslide double-digit popular vote margin | 1.1% |
| Map exactly the same as in 2012 | 0.5% |
| Clinton wins at least one state Mitt Romney won in 2012 | 65.9% |
| Trump wins at least one state President Obama won in 2012 | 78.6% |
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