The moment the Dallas Cowboys officially declared Dak Prescott their starting quarterback over Tony Romo, you knew this moment was coming.
Prescott wasn’t going to go an entire rookie season without adversity. And when he struggled, you knew the calls for Romo would begin. They did after Prescott threw two interceptions and just 165 passing yards on 37 attempts in a 10-7 loss to the New York Giants.
The Cowboys made it clear they aren’t thinking about turning to Romo. Nor should they. It would be an incredible overreaction to one understandable loss after an 11-game winning streak. It would be a sign of panic to bench Prescott (though it’s also fair to point out that Romo still entered Week 14 with the third-best passer rating in NFL history; this isn’t a lightweight backup quarterback we’re talking about).
But Prescott’s quiet games against Minnesota and the Giants are a reminder that the Cowboys can never be entirely comfortable going into the playoffs with a rookie quarterback.
Prescott has been very efficient this season, though the MVP talk has been strange. He’s not even the most valuable rookie in his own backfield. He has played well. However, there will come a point when the Cowboys find themselves in a tight playoff game – like the games against the Vikings or Giants, come to think of it – and Prescott will have to make plays in the most important and pressure-filled game of his life. Maybe he can do it, but the history isn’t good.
No rookie quarterback has ever led his team to a Super Bowl. There have been 100 conference championship games in the Super Bowl era and only four have featured a rookie starting quarterback (Mark Sanchez, Joe Flacco, Shaun King and Ben Roethlisberger). The teams starting a rookie in those games are 0-4, obviously. According to an NFL.com story in 2011, and adding the rookies who have started a playoff game since, teams starting rookie quarterbacks in the playoffs since the 1970 merger are 8-14. That’s eight playoff wins in 46 seasons.
That’s the worry. No matter how good Prescott has been, he’s still a rookie. Defensive coordinators will have a full regular season of film to study on him. The pressure will increase. The record of rookie quarterbacks in the playoffs is not a fluke. There’s a good reason behind it.
Prescott could have a smooth postseason and lead the Cowboys to a Super Bowl win, and we never hear another thing about a quarterback controversy the rest of the season. There’s a first time for everything, and Prescott has a better supporting cast on offense than perhaps any rookie quarterback in NFL history. The Cowboys were good enough with Prescott to start 11-1, and they’re good enough with him to win a title. They can’t turn back after this loss. But if Prescott wins a ring as a starter this season, he’ll be the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to do it. That history will be in the back of the Cowboys’ minds at every step this postseason.
Here are the power rankings following Week 14 of the NFL season:
32. Cleveland Browns (0-13, Last week: 32)
Hue Jackson should start game-planning for that Week 16 home game against the San Diego Chargers right now. That’s not a great chance for a win, but it’s Cleveland’s best remaining opportunity. Nobody remembers 1-15 teams, but 0-16 will live forever.
31. San Francisco 49ers (1-12, LW: 31)
On one hand, that loss to the Jets was insanely ugly. They blew a huge lead against a Jets team that looked like it had given up. It was so bad that the drum beat for Chip Kelly getting fired started getting louder afterward. But really, the 49ers are going to appreciate that loss when the draft order is set.
30. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11, LW: 30)
The Florida Times-Union predicted Allen Robinson would be featured on Sunday, specifically saying it was an easy call that he would get 13 targets. That prediction came as a result of Robinson meeting with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and quarterback Blake Bortles to discuss what’s wrong with the passing game. Robinson had one catch for 17 yards on Sunday. This offense is broken beyond repair.
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