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Below are the exact picks I have made in the NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune Pick 'Em League, and the picks against the spread are added in as lagniappe.
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WEEK 15 PICKS
Picks are in order of confidence straight up (home team in bold):
SEATTLE over LOS ANGELES, Thursday at 7:25 p.m.
If there were ever such a thing as a lock in the world of NFL picks, then this would the lock without a key. In other words, this would be a lock so strong, even bolt cutters couldn't break it. Even a 12-gauge shotgun couldn't open it. Even a stick of dynamite could pry it apart. Even Jeff Fisher on steroids couldn't master it. Oh wait, he ain't dere no more. Well, maybe a stick of dynamite could open it, but I'll take my chances. Against the spread: Seahawks minus-14.5. (Least-favorite spread of the week, just because I am willing to give this many points maybe once a season.)
ATLANTA over SAN FRANCISCO, Sunday at 3:05 p.m.
First off, I'm not taking much from the Falcons blowout win over a Rams team in disarray last week. However, for Matt Ryan to play as well as he did without his top two receivers was pretty impressive. Meanwhile, the only thing impressive in the city of the Golden Gate is, well, nothing. There's nothing impressive about a team that blows a two-touchdown lead to the horrendous Jets. Against the spread: 49ers plus-13.5.
BUFFALO over CLEVELAND, Sunday at noon
OK Brownies, I give up. Maybe you can pull the upset against San Diego next week, but I have too many losses trying to believe in you sorry bunch of horses' patoots. So I wonder what kind of interesting pick you'll come up with in May to keep your downtrodden franchise stuck in the mud? And sorry, Detroit, your 2008 Lions are about to have company at 0-16. (Off on a tangent ... Do you realize how stinkin bad that really is? I mean the 1980 Saints won one game for cryin out loud. And they were really, really bad.) Against the spread: Bills minus-10.5.
GREEN BAY over CHICAGO, Sunday at noon
In the I-have-no-idea-what-to-think-about-you department, the Packers have seemed to R-E-L-A-X, but have they done so in time? With no running game to mention, it's hard to think they'll be a factor in the playoff race, even if they win out and sneak in. And with Chicago finally not having to deal with Cutler the Worthless Bum, the Bears looked decent last week. I'm avoiding this in knockout pools - especially in choosing a road team in a division game - but in the world of your everyday pick, it seems fairly safe. Against the spread: Bears plus-6.5.
MIAMI over NY JETS, Saturday at 7:25 p.m.
First the news was not only that Ryan Tannehill would be out for the remainder of this season but maybe all of next year, too. That has been tempered a bit on Monday with it now being reported his ACL and MCL are just sprained and that he could possibly be back for the playoffs - if Miami should be so lucky. What is most definitely very lucky for them, is having to play their first game without their starting quarterback against the pathetic Jets, who would love to have Dolphins backup Matt Moore on their roster. Against the spread: Dolphins minus-2.5.
ARIZONA over NEW ORLEANS, Sunday at 3:05 p.m.
Now that Jeff Fisher has finally been ousted from Los Angeles, is there a coach who has worn out his welcome more than you-know-who? For those blasting me for saying the Saints have no heart and an unimaginative offense, do yourselves a favor and save the keystrokes this week. And while I'm on the subject of unimaginative offense, let's talk about the $125 million man - they guy who eats up so much cap space there's no room left for quality offensive linemen to protect his rich butt. (Tangent No. 2 of the week has begun.) When's the last time No. 9 looked this bad in consecutive games? Well, the last time he threw three or more interceptions in back-to-back games was 2000 - his final season at Purdue. By comparison, Tom Brady has thrown two interceptions ALL SEASON. This team has not only been stuck in neutral for three years, but it's now going in reverse. The question is will anyone have the you-know-whats to do anything about it? I said 5-11 or 6-10 before the season began, and while I thought for a short time I was going to have to amend that prediction, the Black and Gold went back to being the Lack and Old. Against the spread: Cardinals minus-2.5. (Favorite pick against the spread this week.)
MINNESOTA over INDIANAPOLIS, Sunday at noon
Last week, the Vikings looked anything like world-beaters in Jacksonville, but had they not missed on a couple of chances from the 1-yard-line, the score would have been much more lopsided. Meanwhile, the Colts proved they don't look so hot against above-average defenses. This seems easy to me, as Indy is about to be on the also-ran list. Against the spread: Vikings minus-3.5.
NEW ENGLAND over DENVER, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
While the best team in the AFC has had its lesser moments over the past four weeks, they're about to begin that annual run to the championship game. However, this one has a chance to potentially be an Ice Bowl, with temps currently being forecast at about 10 degrees (for a high) on Saturday and 20 on Sunday. And if the potential snow storm shifts one day later from Saturday, this could be very interesting. That's why I'll shy away from having this one higher on the list, but I have a hard time believing Denver will be able to do anything offensively against a focused Patriots team. If you can find someone to bet you a Barq's, take the under-44 ASAP before it goes down in a few days. Against the spread: Patriots minus-3.5.
KANSAS CITY over TENNESSEE, Sunday at noon
The Chiefs are for real, folks, and I would not want to play them early in the playoffs. Last Thursday, Alex Smith looked like the guy who beat the Saints in the 2011 divisional-round playoffs, and the defense was simply dominating vs. Oakland last week. They should have plenty to both confuse Marcus Mariota and bottle up DeMarco Murray with a seven-man front. Against the spread: Chiefs minus-5.5.
HOUSTON over JACKSONVILLE, Sunday at noon
Not sure which Texans team will show up, but if Lamar Miller plays as he did last week vs. Indy, it shouldn't matter all that much. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are just playing out the string on the way to making a change at head coach, although it's a little too early to take out the human turnover machine, Blake Bortles. Against the spread: Texans minus-6.5.
DALLAS over TAMPA BAY, Sunday at 7:30 p.m.
While Dak Prescott and the Cowboys have showed they're human after all last week, the Bucs kept their roll going, especially on defense. It will be interesting to see if Prescott can bounce back after the team's first loss since Week 1, which is why I don't love this pick. I'm thinking low scoring, and Dallas pulls one out late to put a dent into Tampa Bay's playoff hopes. (However, the Bucs have been fantastic ATS, winning five in a row and seven out of nine.) Against the spread: Bucs plus-7.5. (Second-favorite pick against the spread this week.)
PITTSBURGH over CINCINNATI, Sunday at noon
It's still a huge mystery why Big Ben is so mediocre on the road and a Hall of Famer at home, but it is what it is. Still, while the Bengals have feasted on two poor opponents in back-to-back weeks, it would be silly to think they have enough here to beat a team that is in a must-win situation nearly every week in trying to stay ahead of Baltimore for the division title. (The Steelers have won four in a row ATS as a favorite.) Against the spread: Steelers minus-3.5.
OAKLAND over SAN DIEGO, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
Well, the Raiders proved they are a little ways from being among the elite just yet, but they won't have to be anywhere near that to beat a team that has hit a roadblock and a quarterback who has suddenly become Blake Bortles. The Chargers have been much better at home for the past eight weeks, but losses the past two weeks have to have changed the mindset of an average team at best. Against the spread: Raiders minus-2.5.
NY GIANTS over DETROIT, Sunday at noon
Don't go thinking the G-Men are all that because they were able to stymie the Cowboys on the frozen tundra of the Meadowlands last Sunday night, but I'm not thinking much about Detroit, either. Matt Stafford has an issue with his throwing hand, and if the Bears don't get flagged for holding twice in the final two minutes last Sunday, one of the upsets of the year would have been finished off. That's enough for me to pick New York at home, as they inch closer to clinching a wild-card berth. Still, a tight one. Against the spread: Lions plus-4.5.
BALTIMORE over PHILADELPHIA, Sunday at noon
On the surface, this should seem like an easy one with the Ravens finishing off a four out of six-game homestand. But with a rain and ice potential in Baltimore next weekend, this one could come down to who has a better running game. And while neither is a world beater, Philly has the edge. Not enough to make me pick them, but enough to scare me off of touching it. Against the spread: Eagles plus-6.5.
CAROLINA over WASHINGTON, Monday at 7:30 p.m.
I have no idea which Panthers team is going to show up, which is why this one is the last of my 16 picks. If the Cammy who played last week shows up, it's tough to see how the Redskins can stop him. If he doesn't, well, flip a coin. Still, Carolina and its fifth-ranked rushing defense should be able to limit Rob Kelley and put more pressure on Kirk Cousins, which is enough to give them the slight nod. Against the spread: Panthers plus-4.5.
* Spreads are gathered from oddsshark.com on Monday of each week.
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Last week's picks: Det over Chi (WIN straight up, LOSS against spread, Det -7.5); NE over Balt (WIN SU, WIN ATS, Balt +7.5); Min over Jax (WIN SU, WIN ATS, Min -3.5); Indy over Hou (LOSS SU, LOSS ATS, Indy -4.5); TB over NO (WIN SU, WIN ATS, TB -2.5); Dal over NYG (LOSS SU, LOSS ATS, Dal -2.5); Atl over LA (WIN SU, LOSS ATS, LA +6.5); Den over Ten (LOSS SU, LOSS ATS, Den, even); Pit over Buf (WIN SU, WIN ATS, Pit -1.5); Ari over Mia (LOSS SU, LOSS ATS, Ari +1.5); Car over SD (WIN SU, WIN ATS, Car, even); Sea over GB (LOSS SU, LOSS ATS, Sea -2.5); KC over Oak (WIN SU, WIN ATS, KC -3.5); SF over NYJ (LOSS SU, LOSS ATS, SF, even); Phil over Wash (LOSS SU, LOSS ATS, Phil, even); Cle over Cin (LOSS SU, LOSS ATS, Cle +6.5.
RECORD STRAIGHT UP
Week 14: 8-8. SEASON: 132-74 (.641).
RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD
Week 14: 6-10. Favorite ATS: Cleveland +6.5, L (10-4). Second favorite: Minnesota -3.5, W (8-6). Least favorite, Kansas City -3.5, W (9-5). SEASON: 112-95 (.541) or 111-96 (.536).
SAINTS PICKS
Week 14: Saints straight up (W), TB -2.5 ATS (W). Season: (10-3 straight up, 9-4 ATS).
POINT LEADERS (in Pick 'Em Contest)
Week 14: Samuel Quinon, 124 points of a possible 136. (Jim Derry: 85, T84th place out of 114)
Overall: Paul Turcotte, 1,180/1,657. (Jim Derry: 1,131, 10th place out of 260)
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PREVIOUS 2016 COLUMNS (click on week to view)
Week 14: 8-8 straight up, 6-10 ATS
Week 13: 8-7 straight up, 8-7 ATS
Week 12: 10-6 straight up, 10-6 ATS
Week 11: 13-1 straight up, 10-4 ATS
Week 10: 9-5 straight up, 7-7 ATS
Week 9: 11-2 straight up, 11-2 ATS
Week 8: 9-3 straight up, 6-7 ATS
Week 7: 9-5 straight up, 6-8 ATS
Week 6: 11-4 straight up, 9-6 ATS
Week 5: 7-7 straight up, 5-9 ATS
Week 4: 8-7 straight up, 6-9 ATS
Week 3: 5-11 straight up, 8-8 ATS
Week 2: 11-5 straight up, 9-7 ATS
Week 1: 13-3 straight up, 11-5 ATS
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Jim Derry can be reached at [email protected] or 504.232.9944. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/JimDerryJr.
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